This alert expired on 27 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 5th strongest of the 48 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 3:12PM EDT until May 27 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 393,219 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- June 22, 2026 · score 43 · 3.5 km
- July 27, 2026 · score 43 · 5.1 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 14.1 km
How we know
Confirmed by 5 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 89 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 89% |
| Coordinates | 37.9740, -77.4525 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (36 km) |
| Population Exposed | 393.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T19:12:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2bfecdf1ae14ad787562ba858595ec1c |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Albemarle, VA; Lancaster, VA; Northumberland, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 3:12PM EDT until May 27 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T15:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2bfecdf1ae14ad787562ba858595ec1c542911a8.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ca954ddb54a493e0d8eee2052522e2bd2b7ec342.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 E Lignum |
| Iem County | Culpeper |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | There was a call for trees down near the intersection of Elys Frd Road and Yellow Bottom Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.430_-77.450_1779900600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779900600000,"latitude":38.43,"longitude":-77.45},{"id":"iem_D_38.240_-77.670_1779901500000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779901500000,"latitude":38.24,"longitude":-77.67},{"id":"iem_D_38.300_-77.490_1779901680000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779901680000,"latitude":38.3,"longitude":-77.49},{"id":"iem_D_38.420_-77.800_1779899400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779899400000,"latitude":38.42,"longitude":-77.8}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.